![Probability of U.S. recession predicted by Treasury spread, 12 months ahead since 1960 | Your Personal CFO - Bourbon Financial Management Probability of U.S. recession predicted by Treasury spread, 12 months ahead since 1960 | Your Personal CFO - Bourbon Financial Management](http://www.bourbonfinancialmanagement.org/sites/default/files/users/PatrickBourbon/Probability%20of%20U.S.%20recession%20predicted%20by%20Treasury%20spread%2C%2012%20months%20ahead%20since%201960.png)
Probability of U.S. recession predicted by Treasury spread, 12 months ahead since 1960 | Your Personal CFO - Bourbon Financial Management
![NY Fed Treasury Spread Model: Probability of Recession Falls to Lowest Level Since 1983 | American Enterprise Institute - AEI NY Fed Treasury Spread Model: Probability of Recession Falls to Lowest Level Since 1983 | American Enterprise Institute - AEI](http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_otfwl2zc6Qc/S4RTDfUcOMI/AAAAAAAAM2I/eHUasspm1Vs/s400/fed2.jpg)
NY Fed Treasury Spread Model: Probability of Recession Falls to Lowest Level Since 1983 | American Enterprise Institute - AEI
![New York Federal Reserve Recession Model: Only 1-in-32 Chance of Double-Dip Recession in 2012 | American Enterprise Institute - AEI New York Federal Reserve Recession Model: Only 1-in-32 Chance of Double-Dip Recession in 2012 | American Enterprise Institute - AEI](http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-3AaFpop8S-s/TuQpu0pk-6I/AAAAAAAAQa0/OZWdYsAnM-w/s1600/prob.jpg)
New York Federal Reserve Recession Model: Only 1-in-32 Chance of Double-Dip Recession in 2012 | American Enterprise Institute - AEI
![Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter: "NY Fed's recession probability model continues to show relative calmness (since it uses 10y-3m spread vs. flatter 10y-2y spread) https://t.co/eco7CM98P8" / Twitter Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter: "NY Fed's recession probability model continues to show relative calmness (since it uses 10y-3m spread vs. flatter 10y-2y spread) https://t.co/eco7CM98P8" / Twitter](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNj9UIRWUAMretH.jpg)
Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter: "NY Fed's recession probability model continues to show relative calmness (since it uses 10y-3m spread vs. flatter 10y-2y spread) https://t.co/eco7CM98P8" / Twitter
![This Reliable Economic Indicator Is Still Flashing Green – Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise This Reliable Economic Indicator Is Still Flashing Green – Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise](https://kenaninstitute.unc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/2-1.png)
This Reliable Economic Indicator Is Still Flashing Green – Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise
![CARPE DIEM: NY Fed Treasury Spread Model Suggests Economic Recovery Has Started, Recession Will End This Year CARPE DIEM: NY Fed Treasury Spread Model Suggests Economic Recovery Has Started, Recession Will End This Year](http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_otfwl2zc6Qc/Sieu1PQGeuI/AAAAAAAAKO4/DNDP7n7SjoQ/w1200-h630-p-k-no-nu/nyfed2.jpg)
CARPE DIEM: NY Fed Treasury Spread Model Suggests Economic Recovery Has Started, Recession Will End This Year
A recession indicator is blaring louder than it did before the 2008 downturn - but 'no one seems to care'
![NY Fed Treasury Spread Model: Probability of Recession Falls to Lowest Level Since 1983 | American Enterprise Institute - AEI NY Fed Treasury Spread Model: Probability of Recession Falls to Lowest Level Since 1983 | American Enterprise Institute - AEI](http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_otfwl2zc6Qc/S4RTD2bmcgI/AAAAAAAAM2Q/caCtVgp_sF8/s400/fed1.jpg)
NY Fed Treasury Spread Model: Probability of Recession Falls to Lowest Level Since 1983 | American Enterprise Institute - AEI
![The longer the U.S. Treasury yield curve stays inverted, the better it predicts recession, analysts say - MarketWatch The longer the U.S. Treasury yield curve stays inverted, the better it predicts recession, analysts say - MarketWatch](https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2019/07/08/Photos/NS/MW-HM860_nyfedm_20190708142301_NS.png?uuid=6bb35420-a1ad-11e9-b2e7-9c8e992d421e)